UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 17, 2024 · 10:59:18 PM +00:00
·
Doctor Who
UPDATE:
From The Hill:
President Biden on Wednesday came out in support of Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) proposal for three separate bills providing U.S. aid to Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific, urging passage of the bills this week.
“The House must pass the package this week and the Senate should quickly follow. I will sign this into law immediately to send a message to the world: We stand with our friends, and we won’t let Iran or Russia succeed,” Biden said in a statement.
Haven’t seen the text of the 3 bills m, but if Biden has endorsed them, that’s good enough for me.
Another brilliant political move by Biden. Not only does it get Democrats to vote for the rule in Committee and on the floor to get the Bills a floor vote, this back handed favor to Johnson will pretty much assure a Motion to Vacate, which Democrats are under no obligation to save him from.
So not-so-Magic Mike has finally decided on a path forward regarding Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan Aid. No, it’s not allowing his members to sign the Discharge Petition and pass the Senate Bill. That would be too quick and easy.
No, he’s opted for a path that would make Rube Goldberg proud. Here’s how NBC News describes it:
In a message to members before releasing the legislation, Johnson said there would be "three bills that will fund America’s national security interests and allies in Israel, the Indo-Pacific, and Ukraine, including a loan structure for aid, and enhanced strategy and accountability."
He said Republican leadership will come forward with an amendment process "alongside a fourth bill that includes the REPO Act," which is aimed at seizing Russian assets to benefit Ukraine; the House-passed bill to ban TikTok in the U.S. unless it divests from its China-based owner; as well as "sanctions and other measures to confront Russia, China, and Iran."
Confused yet? Well you’re not alone. Equally as confusing is the legislative process he has chosen to get the now four (4) Bills passed in the House.
First, he needs to have the Rules Committee pass a rule combing all 4 Bills into a single debate and amendment process and then allow separate votes on each Bill. With at least Republican Committee members Tom Massie and Chip Roy being “no” on the rule because the package includes military aid to Ukraine, Johnson will need the “yes” votes of Democratic Committee members to pass the rule.
Assuming it passes out of Committee, this same rule will have to be voted on by the full House before the debate/amendment process on the Bills can begin. Again, since he has only a 2 vote Republican majority and far more Republicans willing to vote “no” on the rule, Johnson will again need the “yes” votes of Democrats to pass the rule.
BTW: Johnson is trying to go through this rule establishment process since it allows each Bill to pass by a simple majority instead of needing a 2/3d majority to waive the standard House Rules, making it easier to pass the Bills.
Then when it comes to the Ukraine Aid Bill itself, Johnson will again need the “yes” votes of Democrats to pass the Bill.
Anyone see a pattern here? I bolded it.
That’s right, Democrats hold controlling votes at 3 key steps in the process to get Ukraine Aid passed. That means they can to some extent, control what those Bills do and do not contain. So what does Minority Leader Jeffries have to say about that? Here’s what he said to the NY Times yesterday:
House Republicans previously pushed through an aid bill for Israel that omitted humanitarian aid for Gaza, and some have recently suggested that any further aid for Ukraine should be restricted to military funding. But Mr. Jeffries called preserving humanitarian aid a “red line” for Democrats, according to a person familiar with his private remarks who described them on the condition of anonymity.
As far as “poison pill” amendments go, Democrats with3 or more Republicans should be able to kill them.
A couple other advantages Democrats have that we should keep in mind.
One is the fact that Tom Massie and MTG have committed to going to the well of the House floor and making good on their filed Motion to Vacate. If Johnson wants to avoid being removed from the Speakership, he will need some Democrats’ votes to table Massie’s/MTG’s motion, and both Johnson and the Democrats are fully aware of this fact.
The other is this anonymous quote:
If this complicated, four-bill aid process fails, at least one Republican toldreporter Jake Sherman that “the floodgates will open and they’ll just sign the Senate bill discharge petition.”
If it is to be believed, Democrats can still get the Senate aid package to the House floor and passed even if Johnson’s Rube Goldberg plan fails.
Of course, the devil is in the details. Those details will be contained in the text of the bills which we are waiting to see. So Democrats’ support will of course depend on what’s in and not in the bill text.
Anyway, Johnson is aiming for Saturday evening for final votes in the Bills. That means we are looking at a Committee vote on the rule on Thursday or Friday.
Stay Tuned!